Phrenzie.com

Finally, there’s a video of people mentioning Michael Vick’s relativey harsh treatment.

Jamie Dukes, Deion Sanders, Marshall Faulk and Warren Sapp talk about how the backlash on Vick was a little too much.  All of them noted that what he did was wrong.

And I completely agree on both points.

In my mind, why is Michael Vick being blacklisted when so many wife beating, drug using, hit and run driving, fight starting, gun carrying athletes are actively given second chances??? He fought dogs…but how’s that worse than beating the heck out of your girlfriend??? And I love dogs…

Here’s the link.

It’s no secret that Oprah is a market mover (as Wal-mart is a marketplace).

So when she promoted free grilled chicken at participating KFCs, I already knew that there was going to be a bottleneck in system (classic operations management dilemma).   “As American as apple pie” really isn’t accurate. “As American as fried chicken” is way more applicable.

So here’s a quick rundown of some of the obvious system points …

1) oprah.com/kfc seemed to handle all the traffic

2) unthinkfc.com (the target site directed from oprah.com/kfc) seemed to do okay

3) bricks.coupons.com…(the site where you actually printed the coupons) was overwhelmed.

4) the KFC outlets were overwhelmed, having run out of chicken and subsequently issuing rain checks.  Duh!  It didn’t matter that people had until May 19 to go to KFC…people were going to hit the outlets as soon as the coupons were printed out.  I just assume that KFC planned to issue rain checks.

When I used coupons.com, it timed out due to demand. I kept refreshing my browser. But when I finally got back on, it said that I exceeded my allotment of coupons (4).

I wasn’t upset, since my wife and I were curious about the KFC dish, but generally equate KFC with fried chicken (and don’t eat it…I’m sure this “expansion of the KFC brand” was one of the factors for the promo).

If for nothing else, coupons.com will use this information and set up some more servers and try to lower the switching time the next time they get a market mover like Oprah.

Who knew Obama doubled as the next Edwin Hubble.  It’s about time we had a president who actually knew technology was the way for the US to remain in the top tier across the board (economically, brain trust and jobs).

Check out his Office of Science & Technology Policy blog (still in the incubation stage).

While the OSTP doesn’t appear to be fully running as yet as (the President just established the advisory council today), he named Dr. John Holdren Director of OSTP, whose focus has been on environmental science and public policy

What’s fascnating is that while the OSTP sounds new, it was actually established in 1976.

That says something when the 94th Congress (we’re on the 110th) and President Gerald  Fordrealized tech was the wave of the future and nothing seemed to really happened until now (granted, “now” is a strong word, since things are just getting started).

But that’s the point.  This does sound like more effort than in previous administrations (er, this isn’t a slight on Bush).

Nonetheless, like many, I’m encouraged.

As an aside, I just read Angels & Demons (actually, reread, since the movie’s coming out in a few weeks).  Talked about the bitter feud between science and religion.

There’s been a little written about Blockbuster’s move to offer videos on TIVOs and sell TIVO DVRs at BBI’s retail outlets.  Here’s the press release.

So what.

TIVO is fighting a near death with On-Demand and the cable companies’ own versions of DVRs, not to mention the other DVRs available in stores.  So although TIVO is a household name, it’s also a generic name for DVRs,  like Kleenex is to tissue. 

For the year ended January 31, 2009, TIVO had a net subscriptions loss of 91,000 and it’s been losing subscribers for each of the last four quarters.  But it does appear to be getting better (net loss of 4,000 from 28,000 and 42,000 for the 4th, 3rd and 2nd quarter, respectively.

No wonder why TIVO’s stock hasn’t moved in YEARS.

So TIVO won’t provide Blockbuster with much of a bump.  

Don’t get me wrong…I think it’s a necessary move.  TIVO still serves over 3 million subscribers (as of January 31, 2009).  So even if one subscriber uses the Blockbuster/TIVO partnership, that’s potentially one more than Blockbuster had

Back in March, I paneled a music conference.  When we talked about social networks as a means to push artists’ music or brand, I mentioned that I thought Myspace was dieing and that it seemed like Facebook was the upstart. 

Some of the other panelists tried to crush my comment, like what I said was blasphemy.  Amazing…I just took a look at Compete.com’s numbers for both sites and seems like I wasn’t all that wrong.  I suspect that if I look at November numbers, I wouldn’t come to a different conclusion. 

My experience was that people just weren’t as enthralled with Myspace any more.  It’s yesterday’s news, to an extent.  I think it’s still valuable.  I mean, come on, it still as over 50MM uniques…how many sites can say that!

Keep in mind, that I don’t think Facebook is the long-term answer.  I think someone else will come along with a better app.  Someone always does.  That’s actually why I think the valuation of Facebook is ludicrous.  $15 billion (or whatever the latest incarnation of the valuation is) is insane – seems like that should take into long-term value, and I don’t think it’s a sustainable business…social apps don’t seem to have a long shelf-life…imo.

Got an email from Namco Bandai today…Afro is coming out as a video game January 27, 2009.  I hope this is good.  The anime was off the hook.  Thanks Gonzo/Funimation!  The quality and style of graphics are (dare I say) on par with Ninja Scroll. 

There, I said it! 

It’s really that good.

So if the video game is on par with the anime, then we should be in for a treat.

Problem is that sometimes a top anime doesn’t translate into video games.  Some fans of Spawn know what I mean.  I mean, I really TRIED to like the game play, but just got, well, bored, underwhelmed, disappointed. 

Bandai is gonna send us a copy of the game, so my man, Will, is gonna let you know how it plays on the 360.

Afro Resurrection Trailer…

RealNetworks created software, RealDVD, that allows you to copy a DVD, on up to 5 computers for $30 (can get additional coverage for $20 each).

Studios (Paramount, Warner Brothers, 20^th Century Fox, Sony and Universal) are like, “Screw that!  We’re building a download biz and we’ll be damned if we lose any revenues from DVD sales.”  So studios are trying to establish a moat around this business to protect it…by suing the hell out of RNWK.

RNWK is saying that copying one’s personal collection of DVDs is cool and covered under fair use.

But given the limits software makers place on the number of copies of software licenses, isn’t RealNetworks being hypocritical?

What if I wanted to buy a copy of RNWKs software (any software) and put it on four computers instead of the three limit (mine, my wife’s laptop, her kid sister – who can’t afford it on her own, and my brother’s laptop).

RNWK would probably have a conniption!

Am I missing something???

As a consumer, I’d like RNWK software, since I’m not trying to make money off of this stuff.

I may want to mix some footage of home video of my 10 month old, with scenes from Star Wars and my mom’s amazing piano and vocal performance in 1989 J.  Again, this is for personal usage, so I’d hate to be limited on usage.

Yet, part of me wonders if the studios are going down the wrong path.  These are the same people who said the home entertainment market (i.e., video rentals) would kill its business.  Now the home entertainment market is massive and actually saves the bottom line for movies that either didn’t or couldn’t make it in theatres.  Adams Media Research estimates lost revenues from DVDs will be about $15B if consumers stop buying DVDs and instead copy DVDs from friends or rental outlets like Netflix or Blockbusters.

The other part wonders if the studios are borrowing a page from the old “failed” record label playbook, “sue anything that moves” philosophy.  In that case, when people virally spread music around the net, it actually created buzz for the artist, which reflected in concert ticket and merchandising sales, paid appearances in movies, etc.  The labels didn’t push to get any of that alternative revenue though.  This could drive merchandising, etc.  George Lucas realized this and built a massive empire (no pun intended) out of it.

But I have to admit, about this last point…it generally doesn’t cost as much to produce good music as it does a good movie.  So in theory, you have to recoup more of the cost from DVD than, say music CD sales.

So there’s a service called slydial.  It’s kinda cool.  Basically, you can go straight to voice mail. 

So the kinds of people you want to use the service on…

This “Issues” Chick

So if you met that chick at the club that looked hot, but then you found out she has some “issues” and you wanna break it off…

The “Investment Banker” Dude (or Ass depending on the depth of annoyance)

What about that dude, same club (it’s a weird club), who said he was an investment banker, but you wonder why he’s ALWAYS home, break it off.

Here are some more situations to use the service.  Hilarious. 

These can be done drama free.

I can see this service doing well.  Too nervous to ask the VP of business development for a job, you can leave a voicemail.  But whoever is sitting at their desk and the voicemail light blinks, he/she might just think you’re a punk because you couldn’t actually call.  So the service will be limited.

I would’ve used the service, but I like the people I’m around.  Seriously, I’m reluctant to give out my cell number b/c it might get sold to telemarketers.

The company behind slydial is MobileSphere.  They have a couple of more cool services including Joopz, which allows you to send/receive text messages b/t website and cell phones.

This is hilarious.  What’s funny is that my wife and I just passed a sign promoting Kenny Loggins in concert yesterday. 

One notable remark from “America’s Finest News Service”:

Analysts speculate that the sector-wide layoff was a result of multiple factors, including redundancies in the singing-songwriting division, rising rehab fees that have cost the group millions, and a 34 percent decline in jump-kicks since 2003. In addition, some of Aerosmith’s younger, more ambitious employees, such as Joe Perry, 57, are willing to sing and play an instrument at the same time, often for half the salary.

 Come on!  Gems, I tell you, these are gems.

Here’s the link to the article.

So, Guy Hands, the CEO of private equity firm, Terra Firma, which purchased EMI in 2007 for $6.4 billion is having a hard time making EMI work.   

There were two things that stood out from the NY Times piece on the deal.

1. How bad recorded music is and how profitable music catalog is
2. How difficult it can be for a private equity guy to handle highly nuanced businesses like music

 What’s more profitable, Recorded Music or Publishing?

So Hands points out that he paid about 80% of the $6.4B for publishing and the rest for recorded music – the music side he says he feels like he overpaid for. 

I’ve heard this so many times before – recorded music is horrible and the only profitable line is publishing.

But it makes me think…isn’t publishing’s value partly (or predominantly) derived from the recorded side. 

Think about it.  If you have a go-nowhere artist, the value of the publishing is nil.  But if you a multi-platinum artist like the Notorious B.I.G., then the value is exponentially more.

So the cost a company puts into recorded music will ideally be recovered by the stream of revenue from publishing.  Economically, the costs are shared, since the value is shared.

There needs to be a model that will help predict this, especially since there’s so much historical data.  Something like an algorithm that factors in popularity of the artist and number of records (or downloads) sold/acquired.

 Private Equity and Entertainment, eh?

Stereotypically, business types and creative types haven’t mixed well.  That’s what partly explains why the EMI deal isn’t going over well.  An analogy is AOL and Time Warner…young, tech folks, mingling w/ old media.  It also reminds me of how superficially ludicrous Carl Icahn’s interest in Yahoo is (superficial because he seems more suited to bothering ExxonMobil or Chrysler, not new media companies).

I can see what Hands wants to do – should be able to wring out cost, although growing top line revenue is more difficult.  Just that music isn’t a business for finance types, not yet at least.  It doesn’t run like a creative tech company (which can be very querky and moody…like me), nor a typical non-tech company.  In other words, it relies HEAVILY on intuition. 

I don’t particular like music for this reason.  I like a more predictable business model – one that uses a little intuition and a lot of hard core facts to build a sustainable business.  That’s why I wrote about the potential for using predictive models in developing a business model for entertainment companies.

 What’s Funny?

What’s funny is that if people were still buying music like they did in the 90s, I don’t think this would be a problem.  It’s just that, now, the business model has to change and no one has figured it out yet.

It makes me think of stocks.  So, in a bull market, the average stock picker looks great.  Many use intuition and it works (like in the late 90s).  After the crash, you saw the great pickers do well.  They used a methodology, a system, that works when the market is more rationale.